← Primera Division 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante UD win | 40% | 38% | 2.44 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 34% | 38% | 2.87 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | José Campaña · Levante UD |
| 26' | 🟨 | Sidnei · Real Betis Balompié |
| 28' | 🟨 | Nikola Vukčević · Levante UD |
| 32' | ⚽ | José Campaña · Levante UD |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
| 61' | 🟨 | Aïssa Mandi · Real Betis Balompié |
| 80' | 🟨 | Wilfrid Kaptoum · Real Betis Balompié |
| 81' | ⚽ | Coke · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | Róber Pier · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | Ciutat de València |
| coach days |
| 419.00 |
| 723.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1535.39 | 1587.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.89 | -13.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | 0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| league points | 34.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | 1.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| state index | -0.78 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.01 | 1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |