← Primera Division 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 34% | 31% | 2.89 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | 2.92 | fair |
| Leganes win | 33% | 38% | 2.97 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Rodrigo Tarin · Leganes |
| 43' | ⚽ (og) | Youssef En-Nesyri · Athletic Club |
| 44' | 🟨 | Iñigo Cordoba · Athletic Club |
| 90' | 🟨 | Íñigo Lekue · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 3 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days | 327.00 | 144.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1651.97 | 1697.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.33 | 6.86 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.60 |
| league points | 41.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.80 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.39 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.81 | 27.98 |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |