← Primera Division 2018-19 · Tue, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 40% | 45% | 2.47 | value: +11% |
| Girona win | 31% | 29% | 3.19 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Óscar Plano · Valladolid |
| 23' | 🟨 | Marc Muniesa · Girona |
| 24' | 🟨 | Enes Ünal · Valladolid |
| 34' | 🟨 | Juanpe · Girona |
| 63' | 🟨 | Rubén Alcaraz · Valladolid |
| 67' | ⚽ | Míchel Herrero · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kiko Olivas · Valladolid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Christian Stuani · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 0 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | José Zorrilla |
| coach days |
| 387.00 |
| 326.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.34 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1506.43 | 1527.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.96 | -44.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.67 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| league points | 32.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.13 | 0.46 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.89 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.69 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |