← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Eduardo Prieto Iglesias, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal CF win | 51% | 57% | 1.89 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.39 | fair |
| Leganes win | 20% | 19% | 4.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 64' | ⚽ | Carlos Bacca · Villarreal CF |
| 80' | ⚽ | Karl Toko Ekambi · Villarreal CF |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Nabil El Zhar · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Santiago Cáseres · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andrés Fernández · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kenneth Omeruo · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days |
| 110.00 |
| 324.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1626.50 | 1578.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.88 | 18.69 |
| eye test v1 | 1.03 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.90 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.72 |
| league points | 33.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.45 | -0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 23.48 | — |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.66 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |