← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Mario Melero Lopez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 63% | 67% | 1.55 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.41 | fair |
| Athletic Club win | 15% | 14% | 6.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Iñigo Cordoba · Athletic Club |
| 15' | 🟨 | Yuri Berchiche · Athletic Club |
| 45' | 🟨 | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 47' | ⚽ | Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
| 53' | 🟨 | Iñigo Martínez · Athletic Club |
| 69' | 🟨 | Toni Kroos · Real Madrid CF |
| 76' | ⚽ | Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
| 82' | 🟨 | Keylor Navas · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | ⚽ | Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| coach days |
| 51.00 |
| 141.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1798.33 | 1626.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.75 | 36.55 |
| eye test v1 | 1.26 | 0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.70 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| league points | 61.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.91 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 2.04 | -0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.77 | — |
| state index | 0.91 | 0.66 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.17 | -0.40 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |