← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante UD win | 41% | 35% | 2.37 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 31% | 26% | 3.17 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 39% | 3.47 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Borja Iglesias · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 30' | 🟨 | Ruben Rochina · Levante UD |
| 43' | 🟨 | Chema · Levante UD |
| 62' | ⚽ | Rúben Vezo · Levante UD |
| 65' | ⚽ | Marc Roca · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 70' | 🟨 | Victor Sanchez · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 72' | ⚽ | Ruben Rochina · Levante UD |
| 74' | 🟨 | Ruben Rochina · Levante UD |
| 74' | 🟥 | Ruben Rochina · Levante UD |
| 82' | 🟨 | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 12 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.54 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 |
| venue | Ciutat de València |
| 3.40 |
| coach days | 416.00 | 324.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1611.37 | 1662.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.63 | 10.09 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | -0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.71 |
| league points | 33.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.40 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 27.40 | 24.53 |
| state index | -0.62 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |