← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 39% | 46% | 2.53 | value: +18% |
| Getafe CF win | 32% | 27% | 3.09 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Amadou · Sevilla FC |
| 30' | 🟨 | Éver Banega · Sevilla FC |
| 32' | 🟨 | Gabriel Mercado · Sevilla FC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Franco Vázquez · Sevilla FC |
| 33' | 🟨 | Sergio Escudero · Sevilla FC |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 38' | 🟨 | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sergio Escudero · Sevilla FC |
| 45' | 🟥 | Sergio Escudero · Sevilla FC |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Jorge Molina · Getafe CF |
| 50' | 🟨 | Bruno González · Getafe CF |
| 51' | 🟨 | Leandro Cabrera · Getafe CF |
| 53' | ⚽ | Jorge Molina · Getafe CF |
| 74' | 🟥 | Djené · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 19 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| coach days | 962.00 | 51.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.29 | 2.86 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1733.02 | 1773.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.14 | 23.20 |
| eye test v1 | -1.43 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.55 |
| league points | 51.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.95 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.27 | 29.57 |
| state index | 0.50 | 1.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.57 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |