← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 46% | 47% | 2.11 | fair |
| Huesca win | 28% | 26% | 3.44 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.85 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Huesca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 |
| venue | Estadio de Vallecas |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 50.00 | 201.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.71 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1555.19 | 1565.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.50 | -2.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.10 | -0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 49.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| league points | 27.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.84 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | -1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 27.50 | 27.84 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -1.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |