← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 45% | 37% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.32 | fair |
| Eibar win | 26% | 33% | 3.80 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Joan Jordán · Eibar |
| 62' | 🟨 | José Ángel · Eibar |
| 69' | 🟨 | Sergi Enrich · Eibar |
| 85' | ⚽ | Thomas Lemar · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 90' | 🟨 | Álvaro Morata · Club Atlético de Madrid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Ipurua Municipal Stadium |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 1389.00 | 2697.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1597.59 | 1812.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.25 | -8.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.61 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.84 |
| league points | 40.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 2.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.21 |
| state index | 0.07 | 0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |