← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 48% | 55% | 2.03 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.65 | fair |
| Girona win | 25% | 22% | 3.87 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 47' | 🟨 | Okay Yokuşlu · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 48' | ⚽ | Portu · Girona |
| 69' | ⚽ | Sofiane Boufal · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 70' | 🟨 | Sofiane Boufal · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 76' | 🟨 | Douglas Luiz · Girona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Municipal de Balaídos |
| coach days |
| 50.00 |
| 323.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 4.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1540.46 | 1535.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.99 | -18.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| league points | 32.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.48 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | 0.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.02 | 26.78 |
| state index | 0.02 | -0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |