← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 82% | 83% | 1.17 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 12% | 8.47 | fair |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 6% | 5% | 15.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Mikel Merino · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 45' | ⚽ | Clément Lenglet · FC Barcelona |
| 62' | ⚽ | Juanmi · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 64' | ⚽ | Jordi Alba · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 688.00 | 140.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1941.39 | 1594.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.87 | -13.81 |
| eye test v1 | 1.22 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| league points | 74.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 89.00 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.31 | 1.28 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 2.21 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.40 | 23.23 |
| state index | 1.59 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.30 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |