← Primera Division 2018-19 · Mon, Apr 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: David Medie Jimenez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 56% | 60% | 1.73 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.94 | fair |
| Leganes win | 19% | 17% | 5.08 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Jonathan Silva · Leganes |
| 48' | 🟨 | Daniel Carvajal · Real Madrid CF |
| 51' | ⚽ | Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
| 61' | 🟨 | Marco Asensio · Real Madrid CF |
| 67' | 🟨 | Federico Valverde · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 5 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days |
| 318.00 |
| 45.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 2.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1574.34 | 1802.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.38 | 6.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | 1.25 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.80 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| league points | 40.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 87.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 62.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.94 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | 1.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.99 |
| state index | 0.28 | 1.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | 0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |