← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 37% | 37% | 2.64 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 32% | 3.00 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 30% | 31% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 18' | 🟨 | Anuar · Valladolid |
| 30' | ⚽ | Sergi Guardiola · Valladolid |
| 40' | 🟨 | Mathías Olivera · Getafe CF |
| 62' | 🟨 | Mathías Olivera · Getafe CF |
| 62' | 🟥 | Mathías Olivera · Getafe CF |
| 69' | ⚽ (pen) | Enes Ünal · Valladolid |
| 71' | 🟨 | — · Valladolid |
| 71' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 78' | 🟨 | Óscar Plano · Valladolid |
| 79' | 🟨 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 88' | 🟨 | Rubén Alcaraz · Valladolid |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Jorge Molina · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 22 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | José Zorrilla |
| coach days | 378.00 | 955.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.43 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1549.70 | 1736.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.52 | -8.49 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | -1.16 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.69 |
| league points | 30.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 63.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.61 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.03 | -1.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 27.73 | 28.48 |
| state index | -0.50 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | -0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |