← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Girona win | 36% | 43% | 2.70 | value: +15% |
| Villarreal CF win | 36% | 30% | 2.72 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Samuel Chukwueze · Villarreal CF |
| 51' | 🟨 | Pablo Fornals · Villarreal CF |
| 74' | 🟨 | Juanpe · Girona |
| 76' | 🟨 | Samuel Chukwueze · Villarreal CF |
| 79' | 🟨 | Pere Pons · Girona |
| 87' | 🟨 | Mario Gaspar · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ramiro Funes Mori · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Santiago Cáseres · Villarreal CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Estadi Montilivi |
| coach days | 317.00 | 103.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.74 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1545.06 | 1625.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.17 | -24.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.06 | 0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| league points | 34.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 45.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.48 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 0.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.59 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.78 | 26.84 |
| state index | -0.46 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | -0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |