← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 60% | 61% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.09 | fair |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 17% | 16% | 5.84 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| coach days |
| 134.00 |
| 44.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1621.13 | 1506.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.84 | 9.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| league points | 43.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 0.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.70 | -0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |