← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 61% | 59% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 24% | 4.44 | value: +7% |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 17% | 17% | 5.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Munir El Haddadi · Sevilla FC |
| 39' | 🟨 | Jesé Rodríguez · Real Betis Balompié |
| 55' | ⚽ | Giovani Lo Celso · Real Betis Balompié |
| 59' | ⚽ | Pablo Sarabia · Sevilla FC |
| 63' | ⚽ | Franco Vázquez · Sevilla FC |
| 65' | 🟨 | Sergio Escudero · Sevilla FC |
| 70' | 🟨 | Éver Banega · Sevilla FC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Jesús Navas · Sevilla FC |
| 81' | 🟨 | Daniel Carriço · Sevilla FC |
| 82' | ⚽ | Cristian Tello · Real Betis Balompié |
| 83' | 🟨 | Aïssa Mandi · Real Betis Balompié |
| 86' | 🟨 | Gabriel Mercado · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marko Rog · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cristian Tello · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 18 | Fouls | 8 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days |
| 43.00 |
| 712.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.81 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1687.43 | 1600.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.01 | 4.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.66 |
| league points | 49.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.80 | 1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.52 | — |
| state index | 0.79 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 1.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |