← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 40% | 69% | 2.43 | value: +69% ⚠ |
| Huesca win | 32% | 13% | 3.02 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 17% | 3.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | 🟨 | Jean-Clair Todibo · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jorge Pulido · Huesca |
| 90' | 🟨 | Moussa Wagué · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Huesca | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | El Alcoraz |
| coach days |
| 194.00 |
| 681.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1513.18 | 1949.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.12 | 11.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | 1.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| league points | 24.00 | 73.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 89.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 62.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 2.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.19 | 2.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 6.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.40 |
| squad age | — | 28.40 |
| state index | -0.53 | 1.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.25 | 1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |