← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 50% | 52% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.69 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 23% | 24% | 4.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Éver Banega · Sevilla FC |
| 31' | 🟨 | Wissam Ben Yedder · Sevilla FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rubén Alcaraz · Valladolid |
| 47' | 🟨 | Míchel Herrero · Valladolid |
| 71' | 🟨 | Moises Delgado · Valladolid |
| 84' | ⚽ | Roque Mesa · Sevilla FC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Daniel Carriço · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | ⚽ | Munir El Haddadi · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| venue | José Zorrilla |
| coach days |
| 371.00 |
| 37.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.45 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1510.22 | 1676.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.04 | 8.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.91 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.30 | 51.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.73 |
| league points | 30.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.20 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.69 | 0.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 28.52 |
| state index | -0.48 | 0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |