← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 7, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 42% | 43% | 2.34 | fair |
| Villarreal CF win | 30% | 27% | 3.22 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.49 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Benito Villamarín |
| coach days |
| 706.00 |
| 96.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1590.89 | 1650.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.10 | 23.30 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | 0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| league points | 40.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.40 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.49 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 26.06 |
| state index | -0.31 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.48 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |