← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia CF win | 50% | 49% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.74 | fair |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 24% | 29% | 4.02 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio de Vallecas |
| coach days |
| 36.00 |
| 644.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1484.60 | 1731.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.70 | 24.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | 0.82 |
| league points | 24.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 1.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | — | 25.61 |
| state index | -1.03 | 0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |