← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 69% | 77% | 1.41 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 18% | 14% | 5.26 | fair |
| Eibar win | 13% | 9% | 7.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Paulo Oliveira · Eibar |
| 39' | ⚽ | Marc Cardona · Eibar |
| 59' | ⚽ | Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
| 81' | ⚽ | Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 3 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| coach days |
| 36.00 |
| 1375.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1799.17 | 1599.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.62 | -0.04 |
| eye test v1 | 1.01 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.57 |
| league points | 57.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.40 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.90 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.93 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.60 | — |
| state index | 0.97 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.77 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |