← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 56% | 54% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.80 | value: +6% |
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 18% | 18% | 5.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days |
| 674.00 |
| 2683.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1941.67 | 1815.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.89 | 7.95 |
| eye test v1 | 1.03 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.83 |
| league points | 70.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.80 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 2.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.83 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.83 | 24.27 |
| state index | 1.62 | 1.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.20 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |