← Primera Division 2018-19 · Thu, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 70% | 63% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 23% | 5.22 | value: +18% |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 12% | 15% | 8.14 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 39' | 🟨 | Jesús Navas · Sevilla FC |
| 41' | ⚽ | Roque Mesa · Sevilla FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sergio Escudero · Sevilla FC |
| 46' | 🟨 | Mubarak Wakaso · Deportivo Alavés |
| 54' | 🟨 | Roque Mesa · Sevilla FC |
| 60' | 🟨 | Tomás Pina · Deportivo Alavés |
| 67' | 🟨 | Borja Bastón · Deportivo Alavés |
| 70' | 🟨 | Ximo Navarro · Deportivo Alavés |
| 80' | ⚽ | Pablo Sarabia · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 34.00 | 489.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.54 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1666.89 | 1606.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.94 | 8.96 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | -0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.50 | 65.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 43.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | -1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.52 | — |
| state index | 0.42 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -1.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |