← Primera Division 2018-19 · Thu, Apr 4, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 46% | 46% | 2.12 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 28% | 3.08 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 22% | 26% | 4.36 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 77' | 🟨 | Nacho Martinez · Valladolid |
| 78' | 🟨 | Mikel Vesga · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Guido Carrillo · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Javi Moyano · Valladolid |
| 90' | ⚽ | Guido Carrillo · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Valladolid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days |
| 307.00 |
| 368.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 3.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1564.95 | 1517.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.14 | -18.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.80 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| league points | 36.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.20 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 4.96 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.03 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.40 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.28 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |