← Primera Division 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 64% | 66% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.58 | fair |
| Levante UD win | 15% | 13% | 6.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
| 5' | ⚽ | Yuri Berchiche · Athletic Club |
| 6' | 🟨 | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 27' | ⚽ (og) | Aitor Fernández · Athletic Club |
| 43' | 🟨 | Rúben Vezo · Levante UD |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sergio Postigo · Levante UD |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Roger Martí · Levante UD |
| 77' | 🟨 | Yuri Berchiche · Athletic Club |
| 77' | 🟨 | Roger Martí · Levante UD |
| 78' | 🟨 | Iker Muniain · Athletic Club |
| 85' | 🟨 | Erick Cabaco · Levante UD |
| 89' | ⚽ | Erick Cabaco · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | Erick Cabaco · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟨 | Moses Simon · Levante UD |
| 90' | 🟥 | Erick Cabaco · Levante UD |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Iker Muniain · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| coach days | 123.00 | 398.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1622.34 | 1550.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.98 | -26.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | -0.79 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 66.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.68 |
| league points | 40.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 4.96 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.71 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |