← Primera Division 2018-19 · Tue, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 53% | 63% | 1.84 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.76 | fair |
| Villarreal CF win | 21% | 15% | 4.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Philippe Coutinho · FC Barcelona |
| 16' | ⚽ | Malcom · FC Barcelona |
| 23' | ⚽ | Samuel Chukwueze · Villarreal CF |
| 36' | 🟨 | Álvaro González · Villarreal CF |
| 39' | 🟨 | Sergio Busquets · FC Barcelona |
| 42' | 🟨 | Clément Lenglet · FC Barcelona |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ramiro Funes Mori · Villarreal CF |
| 50' | ⚽ | Karl Toko Ekambi · Villarreal CF |
| 62' | ⚽ | Vicente Iborra · Villarreal CF |
| 77' | 🟨 | Arturo Vidal · FC Barcelona |
| 80' | ⚽ | Carlos Bacca · Villarreal CF |
| 83' | 🟨 | Carles Aleñá · FC Barcelona |
| 84' | 🟨 | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 85' | 🟨 | Sergi Roberto · FC Barcelona |
| 86' | 🟨 | Álvaro González · Villarreal CF |
| 86' | 🟥 | Álvaro González · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Santiago Cáseres · Villarreal CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 90' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 15 |
| 9 | On target | 9 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 7 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Villarreal CF | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Estadio de la Cerámica |
| coach days |
| 91.00 |
| 670.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1644.38 | 1947.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.56 | 26.22 |
| eye test v1 | 0.61 | 0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| league points | 29.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 87.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 2.96 | 2.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 2.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | 1.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 26.06 | 28.29 |
| state index | 0.79 | 1.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |