← Primera Division 2018-19 · Tue, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 71% | 74% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 19% | 4.76 | fair |
| Girona win | 9% | 8% | 10.96 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 48' | 🟨 | Santiago Arias · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 76' | ⚽ | Diego Godín · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 90' | ⚽ | Antoine Griezmann · Club Atlético de Madrid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Club Atlético de Madrid | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Estadio Wanda Metropolitano |
| coach days |
| 2679.00 |
| 305.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 3.68 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1811.49 | 1560.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.80 | 16.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.12 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.69 |
| league points | 59.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 2.96 | 3.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.48 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 24.35 | 25.84 |
| state index | 1.28 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |