← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Mateu, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 42% | 42% | 2.30 | fair |
| Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win | 31% | 30% | 3.16 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.64 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 22 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano de Madrid | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Estadio de Vallecas |
| coach days | 30.00 | 699.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1488.73 | 1600.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.96 | -8.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.49 | 0.59 |
| league points | 23.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.39 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | 1.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.92 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | 1.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |