← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 36% | 33% | 2.73 | fair |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 34% | 36% | 2.90 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 31% | 31% | 3.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Nacho Martinez · Valladolid |
| 9' | ⚽ | Keko · Valladolid |
| 46' | 🟨 | Keko · Valladolid |
| 55' | 🟨 | Anuar · Valladolid |
| 75' | 🟨 | Aritz Elustondo · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 79' | ⚽ | Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enes Ünal · Valladolid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 8 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | José Zorrilla |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 364.00 | 120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.00 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1516.39 | 1605.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.48 | -14.69 |
| eye test v1 | -1.04 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.67 |
| league points | 29.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 15.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | 1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 23.41 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.00 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.28 | 0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |