← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 36% | 47% | 2.72 | value: +29% |
| Valencia CF win | 36% | 24% | 2.73 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.44 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Dani Parejo · Valencia CF |
| 58' | 🟨 | Munir El Haddadi · Sevilla FC |
| 72' | 🟨 | Franco Vázquez · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Éver Banega · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Wass · Valencia CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Valencia CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| coach days | 30.00 | 638.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1677.68 | 1710.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.10 | 16.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | -0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 57.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.78 |
| league points | 43.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 13.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | 0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.52 | 25.38 |
| state index | 0.46 | 0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |