← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 81% | 86% | 1.19 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 10% | 7.71 | fair |
| Huesca win | 6% | 4% | 16.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Cucho Hernández · Huesca |
| 25' | ⚽ | Isco · Real Madrid CF |
| 48' | 🟨 | Jorge Pulido · Huesca |
| 51' | 🟨 | Damian Musto · Huesca |
| 62' | ⚽ | Dani Ceballos · Real Madrid CF |
| 66' | 🟨 | Nacho Fernández · Real Madrid CF |
| 74' | ⚽ | Xabier Etxeita · Huesca |
| 89' | ⚽ | Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Martín Mantovani · Huesca |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 16 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | Huesca |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| coach days |
| 30.00 |
| 181.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -5.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 2.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1807.69 | 1514.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.09 | -13.47 |
| eye test v1 | 0.92 | -1.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| league points | 54.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 65.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.93 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.20 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.41 | -1.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 27.26 | — |
| state index | 1.09 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -0.89 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |