← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Eduardo Prieto Iglesias, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante UD win | 37% | 31% | 2.63 | fair |
| Eibar win | 36% | 40% | 2.72 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 27% | 29% | 3.62 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | José Luis Morales · Levante UD |
| 19' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Escalante · Eibar |
| 26' | ⚽ | Ruben Rochina · Levante UD |
| 40' | 🟨 | Enis Bardhi · Levante UD |
| 78' | ⚽ | Sergi Enrich · Eibar |
| 83' | 🟨 | Nikola Vukčević · Levante UD |
| 87' | 🟨 | Marc Cucurella · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 7 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Levante UD | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Ciutat de València |
| coach days | 395.00 | 1369.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 1.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1551.28 | 1593.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.67 | -15.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.15 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| league points | 31.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 58.00 |
| rest days | 15.96 | 13.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | 5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.21 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.18 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |