← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe CF win | 49% | 52% | 1.99 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 32% | 25% | 3.06 | fair |
| Leganes win | 19% | 23% | 5.10 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Nemanja Maksimović · Getafe CF |
| 49' | ⚽ | Michael Santos · Leganes |
| 65' | 🟨 | Damián Suárez · Getafe CF |
| 65' | 🟨 | Martin Braithwaite · Leganes |
| 68' | 🟨 | Guido Carrillo · Leganes |
| 70' | 🟨 | Mathías Olivera · Getafe CF |
| 83' | ⚽ | Juanfran · Leganes |
| 86' | 🟨 | Djené · Getafe CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mathieu Flamini · Getafe CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 25 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Getafe CF | Leganes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.60 |
| venue | Coliseum Alfonso Pérez |
| coach days | 940.00 | 302.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 1.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1677.32 | 1542.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.16 | -21.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.78 | -0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 65.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.62 |
| league points | 46.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 1.18 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.07 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.85 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.07 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |