← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 40% | 30% | 2.46 | fair |
| Villarreal CF win | 32% | 43% | 3.09 | value: +34% |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.39 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Karl Toko Ekambi · Villarreal CF |
| 15' | ⚽ | Alfonso Pedraza · Villarreal CF |
| 44' | 🟨 | Alfonso Pedraza · Villarreal CF |
| 50' | 🟨 | Mario Gaspar · Villarreal CF |
| 50' | ⚽ | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 60' | 🟨 | Víctor Ruiz · Villarreal CF |
| 61' | 🟨 | Hugo Mallo · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 71' | ⚽ | Maximiliano Gómez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Iago Aspas · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 7 |
| 7 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Villarreal CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Municipal de Balaídos |
| coach days |
| 29.00 |
| 88.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1514.85 | 1656.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.66 | 36.45 |
| eye test v1 | -1.08 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 53.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.69 |
| league points | 25.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 23.14 | 25.90 |
| state index | -0.95 | 0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |