← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carlos Del Cerro Grande, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 81% | 83% | 1.19 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 13% | 7.40 | fair |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 6% | 4% | 17.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 4 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Barcelona | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.48 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Camp Nou |
| coach days |
| 667.00 |
| 302.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1945.54 | 1562.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.49 | 6.42 |
| eye test v1 | 1.36 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | 0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.64 |
| league points | 66.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.20 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 2.36 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.59 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.57 | — |
| state index | 1.84 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.72 | 0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |