← Primera Division 2018-19 · Fri, Mar 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 35% | 38% | 2.75 | value: +5% |
| Girona win | 33% | 31% | 2.98 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Christian Stuani · Girona |
| 39' | 🟨 | Ander Capa · Athletic Club |
| 53' | ⚽ | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 59' | ⚽ | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 63' | 🟨 | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 72' | 🟨 | Juanpe · Girona |
| 80' | 🟨 | Portu · Girona |
| 80' | 🟨 | Iñigo Martínez · Athletic Club |
| 84' | 🟨 | Beñat Etxebarria · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Girona | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Estadi Montilivi |
| coach days | 301.00 | 118.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.73 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1571.50 | 1611.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.93 | 29.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 62.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.74 |
| league points | 34.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 51.40 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.32 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.13 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.84 | — |
| state index | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.06 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |