← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 40% | 37% | 2.44 | fair |
| Sevilla FC win | 33% | 36% | 2.93 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.65 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 53' | ⚽ (pen) | Wissam Ben Yedder · Sevilla FC |
| 63' | 🟨 | Maximilian Wöber · Sevilla FC |
| 65' | 🟨 | Sergi Darder · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 75' | 🟨 | Daniel Carriço · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Sergi Darder · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Dídac Vila · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟥 | Sergi Darder · RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juan Soriano · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Juan Soriano · Sevilla FC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Juan Soriano · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona | Sevilla FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | RCDE Stadium |
| coach days |
| 289.00 |
| 16.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1571.64 | 1668.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 23.15 | -25.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | 0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 52.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.53 |
| league points | 34.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 2.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 5.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.51 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 28.52 |
| state index | 0.42 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |