← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ricardo De Burgos Bengoetxea, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Barcelona win | 64% | 66% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.63 | fair |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 15% | 13% | 6.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Andrés Guardado · Real Betis Balompié |
| 18' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 45' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
| 52' | 🟨 | Clément Lenglet · FC Barcelona |
| 63' | ⚽ | Luis Suárez · FC Barcelona |
| 67' | 🟨 | Nélson Semedo · FC Barcelona |
| 82' | ⚽ | Loren Morón · Real Betis Balompié |
| 85' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi · FC Barcelona |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Benito Villamarín |
| coach days |
| 685.00 |
| 654.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1606.52 | 1939.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.95 | 12.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.30 | 0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| league points | 39.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 87.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 61.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 2.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.52 | 1.92 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | — | 28.39 |
| state index | 0.16 | 1.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.29 | 1.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |