← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 83% | 83% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 13% | 8.77 | value: +12% |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 6% | 5% | 16.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Gareth Bale · Real Madrid CF |
| 62' | ⚽ | Isco · Real Madrid CF |
| 77' | ⚽ | Gareth Bale · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Madrid CF | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.20 |
| venue | Santiago Bernabéu |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 15.00 | 15.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1891.13 | 1599.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.57 | -42.71 |
| eye test v1 | 0.60 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| league points | 51.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.40 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 0.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.50 | -0.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 1.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.57 | 24.99 |
| state index | 1.14 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |