← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Munuera Montero, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 42% | 49% | 2.31 | value: +13% |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.11 | fair |
| Girona win | 26% | 22% | 3.69 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Portu · Girona |
| 17' | 🟨 | Marc Muniesa · Girona |
| 22' | ⚽ | Portu · Girona |
| 32' | 🟨 | Allan Nyom · Leganes |
| 38' | 🟨 | Martin Braithwaite · Leganes |
| 45' | 🟨 | Vasyl Kravets · Leganes |
| 52' | 🟨 | Youssef En-Nesyri · Leganes |
| 61' | 🟨 | Recio · Leganes |
| 63' | 🟨 | Kenneth Omeruo · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michael Santos · Leganes |
| 90' | 🟨 | Guido Carrillo · Leganes |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 20 | Fouls | 6 |
| 8 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leganes | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| venue | Municipal de Butarque |
| coach days | 288.00 | 288.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 3.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1560.15 | 1553.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.15 | 8.01 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.00 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| league points | 33.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 25.84 |
| state index | 0.33 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |