← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Santiago Jaime Latre, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 41% | 37% | 2.36 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 31% | 2.92 | fair |
| Athletic Club win | 25% | 32% | 3.88 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Raúl García · Athletic Club |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rodri · Club Atlético de Madrid |
| 73' | ⚽ | Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club |
| 77' | 🟨 | Mikel San José · Athletic Club |
| 82' | 🟨 | Yeray Álvarez · Athletic Club |
| 85' | ⚽ | Kenan Kodro · Athletic Club |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 4 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| coach days |
| 105.00 |
| 2662.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 1.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1589.94 | 1820.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.58 | 5.34 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 50.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.85 |
| league points | 34.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 2.07 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.22 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | — | 25.18 |
| state index | 0.37 | 1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |