← Primera Division 2018-19 · Fri, Mar 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 52% | 53% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.70 | value: +7% |
| Levante UD win | 22% | 18% | 4.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Adnan Januzaj · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 30' | 🟨 | Rúben Vezo · Levante UD |
| 38' | 🟨 | Chema · Levante UD |
| 44' | 🟨 | Sandro Ramírez · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 70' | 🟨 | Mikel Merino · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 79' | ⚽ | Borja Mayoral · Levante UD |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Levante UD |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Anoeta |
| coach days |
| 104.00 |
| 379.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1608.67 | 1547.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.21 | -20.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.68 | -0.48 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 64.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.67 |
| league points | 35.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.16 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 23.28 | — |
| state index | 0.11 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.03 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |