← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid CF win | 61% | 65% | 1.60 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.29 | fair |
| Valladolid win | 17% | 13% | 5.77 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Álvaro Odriozola · Real Madrid CF |
| 29' | ⚽ | Anuar · Valladolid |
| 34' | ⚽ | Raphaël Varane · Real Madrid CF |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sergio Reguilón · Real Madrid CF |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
| 59' | ⚽ | Karim Benzema · Real Madrid CF |
| 61' | 🟨 | Nacho Martinez · Valladolid |
| 64' | 🟨 | Thibaut Courtois · Real Madrid CF |
| 69' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Real Madrid CF |
| 80' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Real Madrid CF |
| 80' | 🟥 | Casemiro · Real Madrid CF |
| 85' | ⚽ | Luka Modric · Real Madrid CF |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcelo · Real Madrid CF |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 15 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 12 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Real Madrid CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | José Zorrilla |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 343.00 | 9.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.06 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1554.21 | 1885.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.77 | 3.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.86 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| league points | 26.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 60.60 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.02 | 1.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.05 |
| state index | -0.78 | 1.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.15 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |