← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Ignacio Iglesias Villanueva, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla FC win | 60% | 59% | 1.63 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.07 | fair |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 17% | 18% | 5.85 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Pablo Sarabia · Sevilla FC |
| 28' | ⚽ | Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 36' | 🟨 | Igor Zubeldia · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 43' | 🟨 | Raúl Navas · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 45' | 🟨 | Munir El Haddadi · Sevilla FC |
| 48' | ⚽ | Wissam Ben Yedder · Sevilla FC |
| 58' | ⚽ | Wissam Ben Yedder · Sevilla FC |
| 61' | ⚽ | Wissam Ben Yedder · Sevilla FC |
| 69' | ⚽ (og) | Mikel Oyarzabal · Sevilla FC |
| 77' | ⚽ (pen) | Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
| 81' | 🟨 | Daniel Carriço · Sevilla FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sevilla FC | Real Sociedad de Fútbol |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 9.00 | 99.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 2.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1668.16 | 1620.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.86 | 11.62 |
| eye test v1 | 0.51 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.00 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.78 |
| league points | 37.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 2.88 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | 0.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 28.52 | 23.61 |
| state index | -0.12 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | 0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |