← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Estrada Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 38% | 46% | 2.56 | value: +18% |
| Real Betis Balompié win | 33% | 27% | 2.96 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 64' | 🟨 | Okay Yokuşlu · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 76' | 🟨 | Maximiliano Gómez · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 80' | ⚽ | Jesé Rodríguez · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hugo Mallo · RC Celta de Vigo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | RC Celta de Vigo | Real Betis Balompié |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Municipal de Balaídos |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 9.00 | 678.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1609.78 | 1674.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.29 | -15.16 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | 0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 53.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| league points | 25.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 63.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | 1.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 24.49 | 27.97 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | 1.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |