← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 9, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 42% | 41% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.29 | fair |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 29% | 30% | 3.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Escalante · Eibar |
| 53' | 🟨 | Adrián Marín · Deportivo Alavés |
| 58' | ⚽ | Takashi Inui · Deportivo Alavés |
| 71' | ⚽ | Marc Cardona · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Deportivo Alavés | Eibar |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio de Mendizorroza |
| coach days | 463.00 | 1347.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 3.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1689.24 | 1690.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.95 | 13.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.60 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| league points | 40.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.12 | -0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.66 | 29.66 |
| state index | 0.57 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.98 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |