← Primera Division 2018-19 · Fri, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pablo Gonzales Fuertes, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 58% | 53% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 31% | 3.65 | value: +12% |
| RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win | 16% | 16% | 6.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 5 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Athletic Club | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | San Mamés |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 97.00 | 280.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1670.97 | 1650.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.52 | 19.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.33 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| league points | 33.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.56 | 1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.48 | 24.87 |
| state index | 0.46 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |