← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jose Luis Gonzalez Gonzalez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Atlético de Madrid win | 46% | 46% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.10 | fair |
| Real Sociedad de Fútbol win | 23% | 27% | 4.23 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Sociedad de Fútbol | Club Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Anoeta |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 92.00 | 2649.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 1.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1631.07 | 1807.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.78 | -15.56 |
| eye test v1 | -1.01 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.90 | 53.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.81 |
| league points | 35.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.80 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.98 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 23.46 | 24.23 |
| state index | 0.63 | 0.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |