← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 54% | 60% | 1.81 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.71 | fair |
| RC Celta de Vigo win | 20% | 17% | 4.83 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | David Costas · RC Celta de Vigo |
| 74' | 🟨 | José Ángel · Eibar |
| 87' | ⚽ | Sergi Enrich · Eibar |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 3 |
| 4 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Eibar | RC Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| venue | Ipurua Municipal Stadium |
| coach days | 1341.00 | 2.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.61 | 2.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1683.86 | 1616.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.66 | -23.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 61.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| league points | 31.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 52.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.20 | 0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 29.55 | 24.47 |
| state index | 0.43 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | 0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |