← Primera Division 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Betis Balompié win | 41% | 41% | 2.40 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 35% | 3.13 | value: +11% |
| Getafe CF win | 28% | 24% | 3.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Mauro Arambarri · Getafe CF |
| 20' | ⚽ | Leandro Cabrera · Getafe CF |
| 44' | ⚽ | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 51' | 🟨 | Jaime Mata · Getafe CF |
| 75' | ⚽ | Joaquín · Real Betis Balompié |
| 86' | 🟨 | Joaquín · Real Betis Balompié |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aïssa Mandi · Real Betis Balompié |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Real Betis Balompié | Getafe CF |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Benito Villamarín |
| 3.80 |
| coach days | 671.00 | 913.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 1.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1606.99 | 1659.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.99 | 7.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.67 | -0.90 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.57 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.78 |
| league points | 36.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 63.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.80 | 41.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.92 | -1.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.14 | 0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.66 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |